Educational Attainment Found to Be Strongest Predictor of Rightwing Voting in the UK
Rightwing Voting movements are struggling to build support among university graduates, as education has emerged as the single most powerful dividing line shaping political attitudes in Britain, according to new research. The findings suggest that the education divide politics dynamic now outweighs income, job security, or class in predicting views on voting behaviour, diversity, and immigration.
The study, published by the independent National Centre for Social Research (NatCen), indicates that people without higher education qualifications are significantly more likely to support rightwing parties than those with university degrees, regardless of their financial circumstances.
Rightwing Voting Patterns Split Sharply by Education Level
NatCen’s Demographic Divides report found that individuals with qualifications below A-level were more than twice as likely to vote for parties of the right compared with those holding a university degree or higher. This applied to support for both the Conservative Party and Reform UK.
“A person with no educational qualifications had around two times the odds of voting for either the Conservatives or Reform UK than someone with a university degree,” the report noted. Crucially, this pattern remained even after adjusting for financial precarity, highlighting education as a dominant predictor in the education divide politics landscape.
Researchers concluded that educational background alone provides a strong indicator of whether a voter is likely to support rightwing parties in the UK.
A Transatlantic Pattern with Key Differences
The results are similar to what is happening in the US in some ways. Voters with a high school education or less were twice as likely to support Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. election as voters with a college degree.
However, the report stresses that while the education divide politics phenomenon exists in both countries, it plays a more decisive role in the UK. “Rightwing movements in both countries share a common difficulty in gaining support among those who have been through higher education,” the study said, but added that education is far more central to political alignment in Britain than in the U.S.
Education and Attitudes to Diversity
It was found that education had a bigger impact on people's views on race and diversity in the UK than in the US. In the UK, 65% of people with a degree or higher said that diversity makes society stronger. Only 30% of people with A-levels or less agreed.
In the U.S., the gap was narrower but still significant: 74% of college graduates believed diversity strengthens society, compared with 54% of people educated to high school level or less. These figures reinforce the argument that the education divide politics framework is deeply linked to cultural and social values, not just voting behaviour.
Perceptions of Racial Advantage and Immigration
When asked if white people have advantages that Black people don't have, 60% of degree holders in both countries said "a great deal" or "a fair amount." Only 30% of people in the UK with less than A-level qualifications agreed, while 50% of people in the U.S. with the same level of education agreed.
People's views on immigration were similar. In the UK, 55% of people who didn't have A-levels thought that immigrants who lived in the country without permission shouldn't be allowed to stay. This was true for only 36% of people who had a university degree. In the U.S., 32% of graduates agreed with this, while 40% of people with a high school education or less did.
Why the UK and US Diverge Politically?
Researchers observed that in the U.S., education constitutes one of several intersecting predictors of right-wing support. Race, gender, location, and financial instability all play a big role. White voters, men, people who live in rural areas, and people who are having trouble making ends meet are all more likely to support Trump.
According to Alex Scholes, the research director at NatCen, the results help explain why political polarization seems different on each side of the Atlantic. He said, "In Britain, education is the most important dividing line, especially when it comes to immigration and diversity." “Support for the right in the U.S. comes from a much wider range of people.”
As debates over inequality, migration, and culture intensify, the report suggests the education divide politics dynamic will remain central to understanding how and why voters align the way they do in modern democracies.
Also Read:- Education Excellence Magazine For more information